The Pew Internet and American Life Project have produced their third and most recent report on the future of the internet in 2020. They surveyed Internet specialists and analysts, proposing a variety of scenarios, and assessing their responses.
I will go over the 8 scenarios proposed, and in one or two sentences describe why I do or do not agree with it, and compare that to the prevailing thought. I'll formulate my opinion before looking to see how the experts felt.
1. The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in the world. Whether it is a phone, or another mobile device, this seems inevitable. The increase in computation power of these devices alone makes it likely that they'll be able to meet the needs of most. 77% of the experts also agreed
2. Social tolerance has advanced significantly due in great part to the internet. I'm having a hard time seeing a strong relation there. To the contrary, the internet could be a way to anonymously associate with people of like persuasion, and exacerbate intolerance. Only 32% agreed, while 56% disagreed.
3. Content control through copyright-protection technology dominates. I do not see that happening either. I believe as user-generated content continue to grow, the power of collective knowledge will dominate, and that we will see less and less copyright-protection sought. Once again, 60% of experts also disagreed.
4. Transparency heightens individual integrity and forgiveness. No doubt on the first one, as I believe it is already happening. I find it incredibly arrogant for celebrities or politicians to misbehave and think they can get away with it in this day and age. I would love for forgiveness to be on the rise also... Experts are split, 45% agreeing, 44% disagreeing, mostly citing wrongful accusations, and the need to rebuild one's wrongly tarnished reputation... not convinced.Wiener is one example of the former. When it comes to the latter, maybe, The jury is still out on IMF's DSK.
5. Many lives are touched by the use of augmented reality or spent interacting in artificial spaces. I guess this is where the movie "Surrogate" comes in. Great movie. That extreme will not be here by 2020, but I can see this as being appealing to many. So I think the idea valid. 55% of experts agree.
6. Talk and Touch are common technology interfaces. I think of all the scenarios so far, this is the easiest to see coming to reality very soon. Touch for sure will be the primary means to control interfaces. The days of the mouse are counted. People I know already use voice recognition technology to write essays and documents. I love the voice commands in my 2006 car. If we can do 3D, no doubt, this will happen. I am surprised that as many as 21% of experts disagree.
7. Next-generation research will be used to improve they current internet; it won't replace it. I think it depends how you define the internet. Is the Cloud still the internet? Wow, slam-dunk: 78% of expert agree! It seems they see the internet like a car, starting as a model T and always getting better, without changing its basic components... Unless you think more along the lines of David Hakken, a professor of anthropology at the Indiana University School of Informatics who studies social change and the use of automated information and communication technologies who predicts “By 2020, two major advances will have significant impact. The first is bioengineering and nanotechnology, allowing the Net to be ‘embedded’ into individual humans (scary, eh?); the second is quantum computing that will significantly alter the current electrically loaded computing engines.”
8. Few lines divide professional time from personal time, and that's OK. If we are all to become free-agents, then I guess this is true. I do not see us all becoming free-agents by 2020. Another reason I do not see this happening by 2020 is the fact that today devices are still really strong in one area: the iphone is great for surfing the internet, the blackberry is still the "professional" platform for e-mail. However, 56% of experts agree, seeing a "net-positive" impact. I'm not yet convinced...
No comments:
Post a Comment